A Flood of Newly Confirmed Exoplanets

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Artist renderings of exoplanets previously detected by the Kepler Space Telescope (NASA)
Artist renderings of exoplanets previously detected by the Kepler Space Telescope (NASA)

In the biggest haul ever of new exoplanets, scientists with NASA’s Kepler mission announced the confirmation of 1,284 additional planets outside our solar system — including nine that are relatively small and within the habitable zones of their host stars.  That almost doubles the number of these treasured rocky planets that orbit their stars at distances that could potentially support liquid water and potentially life.

Prior to today’s announcement, scientists using Kepler and all other exoplanet detection approaches had confirmed some 2,100 planets in 1,300 planetary systems.  So this is a major addition to the exoplanets known to exist and that are now available for further study by scientists.

These detections comes via the Kepler Space Telescope, which collected data on tiny decreases in the output of light from distant stars during its observing period between 2009 and 2013.  Those dips in light were determined by the Kepler team to be planets crossing in front of the stars rather than impostors to a 99 percent-plus probability.

As Ellen Stofan, chief scientist at NASA Headquarters put it,  “This gives us hope that somewhere out there, around a star much like ours, we can eventually discover another Earth.”

he histogram shows the number of planet discoveries by year for more than the past two decades of the exoplanet search. The blue bar shows previous non-Kepler planet discoveries, the light blue bar shows previous Kepler planet discoveries, the orange bar displays the 1,284 new validated planets. (NASA Ames/W. Stenzel; Princeton University/T. Morton)
The histogram shows the number of planet discoveries by year for more than the past two decades of the exoplanet search. The blue bar shows previous non-Kepler planet discoveries, the light blue bar shows previous Kepler planet discoveries, the orange bar displays the 1,284 new validated planets.
(NASA Ames/W. Stenzel; Princeton University/T. Morton)

The primary goals of the Kepler mission are to determine the demographics of exoplanets in the galaxy, and more specifically to determine the population of small, rocky planets (less than 1.6 times the size of Earth) in the habitable zones of their stars.  While orbiting in such a zone by no means assures that life is, or was, ever present, it is considered to be one of the most important criteria.

The final Kepler accounting of how likely it is for a star to host such an exoplanet in its habitable zone won’t come out until next year.  But by all estimations, Kepler has already jump-started the process and given a pretty clear sense of just how ubiquitous exoplanets, and even potentially habitable exoplanets, appear to be.

“They say not to count our chickens before they’re hatched, but that’s exactly what these results allow us to do based on probabilities that each egg (candidate) will hatch into a chick (bona fide planet),” said Natalie Batalha, co-author of the paper in the Astrophysical Journal and the Kepler mission scientist at NASA’s Ames Research Center.

“This work will help Kepler reach its full potential by yielding a deeper understanding of the number of stars that harbor potentially habitable, Earth-size planets — a number that’s needed to design future missions to search for habitable environments and living worlds.”

Batalha said that based on observations and statistics the Kepler mission has produced so far, we can expect that there are some 10 billion relatively small, rocky  (and potentially habitable) planets in our galaxy.  And with those numbers in mind, she said, the closest is likely to be in the range of 11 light years away.

She said that all of the exoplanets found in habitable zones are in the “exoplanet Hall of Fame.”  But she said two of the newly announced planets in habitable zones, Kepler 1286b and Kepler 1628b, joined two previous exoplanets of particular interest either because of their size (close to that of Earth) or their Earth-like distance from suns rather like ours.

Batalha said a new and finely-tuned software pipeline has been developed to better analyze the data collected during those four years of Kepler observations.  Asked if the final Kepler catalogue of exoplanets, expected to be finished next summer, would increase the current totals of exoplanets found, she replied:  “It wouldn’t surprise me if we had hundreds more to add.”

Since Kepler launched in 2009, 21 planets less than twice the size of Earth have been discovered in the habitable zones of their stars. The orange spheres represent the nine newly validated planets announcement on May 10, 2016. The blue disks represent the 12 previous known planets. These planets are plotted relative to the temperature of their star and with respect to the amount of energy received from their star in their orbit in Earth units. (NASA Ames/N. Batalha and W. Stenzel)
Since Kepler launched in 2009, 21 planets less than twice the size of Earth have been discovered in the habitable zones of their stars. The orange spheres represent the nine newly validated planets announcement on May 10, 2016. The blue disks represent the 12 previous known planets. These planets are plotted relative to the temperature of their star and with respect to the amount of energy received from their star in their orbit in Earth units. (NASA Ames/N. Batalha and W. Stenzel)

Once the Kepler exoplanet list is updated, scientists around the world will begin to study some of the most surprising, enticing, and significant finds.  Kepler can tell scientists only the location of a planet, its mass and its distance from the host star.  So the job of further characterizing the planets — and ultimately determining if any are indeed potentially habitable — requires other telescopes and techniques.

Nonetheless, Kepler’s ability to give scientists a broad picture of the distribution of exoplanets — to find large numbers of them rather than, as pre-Kepler, one or two at a time — has been revolutionary.  It has also been remarkably speedy, thanks in large part to an automated system of analyzing transit data devised by Tim Morton, a research scientist at Princeton University,

“Planet candidates can be thought of like bread crumbs,” Morton said in a NASA teleconference. “If you drop a few large crumbs on the floor, you can pick them up one by one. But, if you spill a whole bag of tiny crumbs, you’re going to need a broom. This statistical analysis is our broom.”

Kepler identified another 1,327 candidates that are very likely to be exoplanets, but didn’t meet the 99 percent certainty level required to be deemed an exoplanet.

A large percentage of the newly confirmed planets are either “super-Earths” or “sub-Neptunes” — planets in a size range absent in our solar system.  Initially, the widespread presence of exoplanets of these dimensions was a puzzle to the exoplanet community,  but now the puzzle is more why they are absent in our system.

Despite the abundance of these exoplanets — which are believed to be mostly gas or ice giants — scientists are convinced there are considerably more rocky, even Earth-sized planets that current telescopes can’t detect.

 The size distribution of discovered exoplanet has been a surprise to scientists. The blue bars on the histogram represent all previously verified exoplanets by size. The orange bars on the histogram represent Kepler's 1,284 newly validated planets. (NASA Ames/W. Stenzel)
The size distribution of discovered exoplanet has been a surprise to scientists. The blue bars on the histogram represent all previously verified exoplanets by size. The orange bars on the histogram represent Kepler’s 1,284 newly validated planets. (NASA Ames/W. Stenzel)

 

The primary Kepler mission focused on one small piece of the sky — about 0.25 percent of it — and a distant part at that. It watched nonstop for transiting planets in that space for four years, watching unblinkingly at some 150.000 stars. The result has been a treasure trove of data that can then be broadened statistically to tell us about the entire galaxy.

So Kepler has revolutionized our understanding of the galaxy and what’s in it, and has proven once and for all that exoplanets are common.  But the individual planets that it has detected are unlikely to be the ones that allow for breakthroughs in terms of sniffing out what chemicals are in their atmospheres — an essential process for determining if a potentially habitable planet actually has some of the ingredients for life.

This is because Kepler was looking far into the cosmos, between 600 and 3,000 light years from our sun.  While the telescope identified almost 5,000 “candidate planets” during its four years of primary operation — and now more than 2,200 confirmed planets — the planets are generally considered too distant for the more precise follow-up observing needed to understand their atmospheres and chemical make-ups.

This work will fall to ground-based telescopes looking at nearer stars, and to future generations of American and European space telescopes using the transit method of detection pioneered by Kepler. (See graphic above.)  The next space satellite in line is NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite  (TESS), which is scheduled to launch in 2017 and will focus on planets orbiting much closer and brighter stars.  The long-awaited James Webb Space Telescope, due to launch in 2018, also has the potential to study exoplanets with a precision, and in wavelengths, not available before.

NASA has begun development of the more sophisticated Wide Field Infrared Survey Satellite (WFIRST) to further exoplanet research in the 2020s,  and has set up formal science and technology definition teams to plan for a possible flagship exoplanet mission for the 2030s.  That mission would potentially have the power and techniques to determine whether an exoplanet actually has the components, or the presence, of life.

 

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On Super-Earths, Sub-Neptunes and Some Lessons They Teach

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Part 2 of 2

The Kepler-452 system compared alongside the Kepler-186 system and our solar system. Kepler-186 is a miniature solar system that would fit entirely inside the orbit of Mercury. The size of the habitable zone of star Kepler-452, considered one of the most “Earth-like” exoplanets found so far, is nearly the same as that of our sun. “Super-Earth” Kepler-452b orbits its star once every 385 days. (NASA Ames/JPL-CalTech/R. Hurt)
The Kepler-452 system compared alongside the Kepler-186 system and our solar system. Kepler-186 is a miniature solar system that would fit entirely inside the orbit of Mercury. The size of the habitable zone of star Kepler-452, considered one of the most “Earth-like” exoplanets found so far, is nearly the same as that of our sun. “Super-Earth” Kepler-452b orbits its star once every 385 days. (NASA Ames/JPL-CalTech/R. Hurt)

 

With such a large proportion of identified exoplanets in the super-Earth to sub-Neptune class, an inescapable question arises: how conducive might they be to the origin and maintenance of life?

So little is actually know about the characteristics of these planets that are larger than Earth but smaller than Neptune (which has a radius four times greater than our planet) that few are willing to offer a strong opinion.

Nonetheless, there are some seemingly good reasons to be optimistic, about the smaller super-Earths in particular. And there are some seemingly good reasons to be pessimistic –many appear to be covered in a thick layer of hydrogen and helium gas, with a layer of sooty smog on top, and that does not sound like an hospitable environment at all.

But if twenty years of exoplanet hunting has produced any undeniable truth, it is that surprising discoveries are a constant and overturned theories the norm. As described in Tuesday’s post, it was only several years ago that results from the Kepler Space Telescope alerted scientists to the widespread presence of these super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, so the fluidity of the field is hardly surprising.

One well-respected researcher who is bullish on super-Earth biology is Harvard University astronomy professor Dimitar Sasselov. He argues that the logic of physics tells us that the “sweet spot” for planetary habitability is planets from the size of Earth to those perhaps as large as 1.4 Earth radii. Earth, he says, is actually small for a planet with life, and planets with a 1.2 Earth radii would probably be ideal.

I will return to his intriguing analysis, but first will catalog a bit of what scientists have detected or observed so far about super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. As a reminder, here’s the chart of Kepler exoplanet candidate and confirmed planets that orbit G, K and M main sequence stars put together by Mission Scientist for the Kepler Space Telescope Kepler Natalie Batalha.

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Kepler exoplanets candidates, both confirmed and unconfirmed, orbiting G, K, and M type main sequence stars, by radii and fraction of the total. (Natalie Batalha and Wendy Stenzel, NASA Ames)

Expanding a bit:

  • While very large exoplanets were the first to be found because of the kind of instruments and techniques used in the search, the consensus view now is that small planets are much more plentiful. Future instruments will doubtless reveal a vast collection of exoplanets in the Earth-radius ballpark and smaller, but super-Earths and sub-Neptunes may well still dominate.
  • There’s a growing body of evidence that when planets are larger than roughly 1.5 Earth radii, they will likely be surrounded by a hyrogen and helium envelope dating back to the formation of the planet. The pull of the larger planets keeps the gases intact and often will render the planet essentially inert.
  • Roughly 70 percent of the main sequence stars in the galaxy are in the M dwarf category, smaller and less powerful stars that are known to have many exoplanets. Often they orbit close in to their sun and are packed together in a tight habitable zone. But many M dwarf planets in their habitable zones are like our moon – tidally locked so one side always faces the sun. Whether or not that rules them out in terms of habitability is now a hotly debated topic.

It’s quite amazing what has been learned about super-Earths, but compared to our knowledge of our solar system planets, we know very, very little. And what, after enormous effort, imagination and cost we do know? Generally speaking, gross measurements of mass, size, orbit period and density. They can tell scientists a lot about super-Earths and larger exoplanets, such as whether they are rocky, gaseous, and the mixtures in between. But characterizing them – and ultimately determining if they are at all capable of supporting life — really requires at a minimum that ability to measure what elements and compounds are in its atmosphere.

There are techniques for doing this: When an exoplanet passes in front of its star, the chemical make-up of the planet’s atmosphere can be analyzed by looking at how light either passes through or is absorbed by molecules, providing a telltale spectral reading of its contents.

trans_spec
Probing potassium in the atmosphere of HD 80606b with tunable filter transit spectrophotometry from the Gran Telescopio Canarias (European Space Observatory.)

Caroline Morley, of Jonathan Fortney’s group at the University of California at Santa Cruz, is one of those working to understand those measurements. But so far, the larger super-Earth and sub-Neptune planets are not cooperating.

“No spectral features are coming through, and so we’re limited in our characterizing,” Morley said. “This is a fundamental problem.” The spectral blanks, she and others are convinced, are the result of either thick clouds (probably made up of salts like zinc sulfide and potassium chloride) or a sooty hydrocarbon smog surrounding the planets. They keep the necessary stellar light from passing through in a way that would allow the presence of an enriched atmosphere, if present, to be identified and analyzed.

Like Morley, Robert Charnay and Victoria Meadows of the Virtual Planetary Laboratory at the University of Washington have been working to understand the opaque nature of the sub-Neptune planet Gliese 1214b in particular. They used a 3D circulation model to determine that salt clouds, which would form at lower altitudes, could nonetheless rise to the upper atmosphere and block any spectral readings.

These obstacles to analyzing the atmospheres of super-Earths were an initial surprise and have been a major frustration in the field. The James Webb Space Telescope may be able to peer through the clouds via detection of thermal emissions, so the 2018 arrival of the successor to the Hubble is eagerly awaited.

Caroline Morey of the University of California, Santa Cruz
Caroline Morey of the University of California, Santa Cruz (Jennifer Burt)

Based on what astronomers, planetary scientists, astrophysicists and others have been able to learn so far about the super-Earths to sub-Neptunes, the picture for potential habitability does not appear particularly bright. But there are other ways to assess that informal class of planets and come up with very different conclusions.

Dimitar Sasselov looks at astronomical problems from a more theoretical perspective, though he was a co-investigator for the Kepler telescope too. As Sasselov sees it, the basic physics of super-Earths, especially the smaller ones, actually favor life. The reason why is that it favors stability.

“There is no particular reason why a bigger planet might not be habitable,” he said. “When planets go bigger they get more stable, though certainly other problems will can and will arise. But when looking at some of the super-Earths, I contend they are as good for life as Earth, if not better.”

The additional stability comes in various forms. First is a less variable slant to the spin axis – its obliquity. Planets can get into trouble when that slant is highly changeable, as Sasselov says, pointing to Mars as an example. The planet’s steep and sometimes chaotic changes in the angle of its spin are believed to have caused dramatic climate changes.

Then there is the greater gravity that comes with a more massive planet. That increased gravity can have the effect of keeping an atmosphere from evaporating, a process that, among other things, exposes the planet to the charged particles coming from a parent star.

Dimitar Sallelov, professor of Astronomy at Harvard University and director of the Harvard Origins of Life Initiative
Dimitar Sasselov, professor of Astronomy at Harvard University and director of the Harvard Origins of Life Initiative (NASA)

And there is the increased likelihood of some kind of recycling of material from the planet surface back into the mantle, where it gets chemically enriched. Plate tectonics allows for that kind of chemical redistribution on Earth, but smaller planets are not known to have parallel processes.

With a more stable atmosphere and planetary slant, “the geochemistry of a planet has plenty of time to leap to biochemistry, and then to adapt,” he said. “Life is rooted in geochemistry and has to play by the rules of chemistry and physics.   There are many aspects to stability, and all benefit from a planet being Earth-sized or larger.”

As for Earth itself, he sees our planet as being uncomfortably close to that low edge of what makes a planet not very stable – not especially habitable.

There are, of course, limits to finding habitable conditions on most large planets. Sasselov agrees that planets bigger than 1.5 earth radii or so will tend to keep their primordial envelope of hydrogen and helium, which can have the effect of freezing everything on the planet in place and making life impossible. They will also tend to be fully gaseous rather than rocky.

But there will always be outliers, he said, and he has spent a lot of time working on one of the – the “Mega-Earth” Kepler 10c. It is a huge super-Earth with a surprisingly high ratio of rock, orbiting its sun in 45 days and breaking all the rules – such as they are now – about planet formation.

An artist concept shows the Kepler-10 system, home to two rocky planets. In the foreground is Kepler-10c, a planet that weighs 17 times as much as Earth and is more than twice as large in size. This discovery has planet formation theorists challenged to explain how such a world could have formed. (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics/David Aguilar)
An artist concept shows the Kepler-10 system, home to two rocky planets. In the foreground is Kepler-10c, a planet that weighs 17 times as much as Earth and is more than twice as large in size. This discovery has planet formation theorists challenged to explain how such a world could have formed. (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics/David Aguilar)

“We were very surprised to discover it,” said Sasselov, who was part of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics team that first detected and analyzed it. “It was so large, so close to its sun, and much more massive than we would have predicted.”

It is a very hot planet and so not at all habitable, but it is a clear reminder that nature has ways of producing results that don’t appear at all plausible.

Sasselov said those anomalies may have to do with planet migration – that a large and gaseous Kepler 10c moved from the outer solar system into the close environs of its sun, and then lost some or all of its gas envelope from the heat and other solar activity. But the however it evolved – and since the system is more than 10 billion years old, it had a lot of time to evolve – it ended up a planet with 2.2 Earth radii with no apparent gas barriers around it and close to its sun. That, says Sasselov, makes it perfect to study with spectroscopy.

When NASA announced the huge mass of the planet in 2014, Kepler mission Batalha said: “Just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, nature gives you a huge surprise—in this case, literally.”

 

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